The analysis of the 2026 Food Systems Countdown shows that progress is too slow and not enough to reach the 2030 goals, but the 2050 horizon is still possible, as long as actions are consistent and sped up.
The 2026 Food Systems Countdown analysis shows that progress is too slow and insufficient to reach the 2030 goals, but the 2050 horizon is still achievable, provided actions are consistent and accelerated.
The latest study from the Food Systems Countdown Initiative (FSCI) exposes the harsh reality of transforming global food systems: for most indicators related to health, the environment, livelihoods, governance, and resilience, the vast majority of countries will not meet the internationally agreed 2030 targets. And for some indicators, like food-system-related greenhouse gas emissions, no country in the world is expected to meet the set target.The study, published in Nature Food, is the most comprehensive assessment of food system performance to date. It covers 197 countries and 44 indicators across five themes: food, nutrition, and health; environment, natural resources, and production; livelihoods, poverty, and equity; governance; and resilience. For the first time, the study goes beyond simply tracking trends to evaluate actual progress and measure the real performance of food systems, as well as the improvements needed to meet global goals.
The Food Systems Countdown Initiative (FSCI) is a global interdisciplinary research collaboration co-led by Johns Hopkins University, Cornell University, the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), and the Global Alliance for Improved Nutrition.
“What sets this report apart is that it doesn’t just tell countries whether they are going in the right direction; it shows them the path they still have to take to reach a realistic goal. This distinction between tracking trends and measuring performance turns a monitoring exercise into an accountability tool,” explains Bianca Carducci, the lead author.
Key findings:
The study shows that, out of 30 indicators, only the number of mobile phone subscriptions, an indicator of connectivity and resilience, is being met by most countries. For 22 indicators, less than a third of countries will reach their target or the global benchmark by 2030.The indicator ‘greenhouse gas emissions related to food systems’ shows one of the biggest gaps, with the global average being 75% below the target. No country in the world will reach this goal at the current pace.
Most regions in the world will need to make significant progress every year to hit the 2030 targets. For example, Africa will have to improve at least 15 to 20% of 23 indicators each year, and Asia will need to reduce food insecurity by more than 63% per year. High-income regions aren’t off the hook either. In Europe, 19 indicators are still out of reach by 2030. The analysis also shows that some indicators are moving in the wrong direction, especially civil society participation, government accountability, sales of ultra-processed foods, water withdrawals for agriculture, pesticide use, and changes in food system–related emissions.”Accountability in transforming food systems requires accelerated progress; without it, efforts risk being just window dressing rather than real transformations. We can no longer afford to continue at the current pace,” said Mario Herrero, professor at the Ashley School of Global Development and Environment at Cornell University.
Glimmers of hope
Despite a worrying picture for 2030, the study is not entirely pessimistic. For 7 of the 33 indicators, at least a third of countries are already on track to meet the goal set for 2030. Additionally, half of the indicators are moving in a positive direction globally. The study also outlines the pace of changes needed to meet the 2050 targets, making progress feel more realistic and less impossible.In some cases, regional and income-based benchmarks provide more realistic intermediate steps that can motivate countries. For example, on average, African countries face a gap of 58.7% compared to the global standard for affordable access to healthy food. However, this gap drops to 32.2% when compared to a regional standard based on the average of the top 20% of performing African countries.
“Ambitious global goals are essential to spark ambition. But they can become a source of inertia if they seem unattainable. That’s why regional and income-group benchmarks help track progress and highlight exemplary countries that can show others how to get there,” said Jessica Fanzo, the James Anderson Professor of Food and Climate Policy at Johns Hopkins University’s School of Advanced International Studies Europe.
