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Global food markets are expected to stay well supplied in 2026-2027, with cereal production close to record levels. Behind these positive outlooks, the FAO still sees a few risks: a possible return of El Niño, volatility in energy and fertilizer prices due to conflicts, geopolitical and trade tensions, as well as macroeconomic uncertainties.
Global harvests of wheat, coarse grains, and rice are expected to fall compared to next year’s records while remaining high, supported by abundant stocks, according to the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO).
World cereal production is expected to drop by 2.0% in 2026 to 2,982 million tons, use would increase by 1.0%, and per capita consumption in low-income countries would fall by 0.4%. Wheat would drop by 3.8% to 810.9 million tons, due to decreases in Australia, the European Union, and the United States, where a 21.3% decrease is expected.The fertilizer market remains exposed to events affecting transit through the Strait of Hormuz.
The fertilizer market remains exposed to the Strait of Hormuz
“Food systems seem strong in terms of production, but risks are increasing, and many of them are likely to have rapid and harmful effects on supply and access to food worldwide,” said Maximo Torero, FAO chief economist.
In this context, the FAO warns of persistent fragility in global agricultural supply chains: global fertilizer trade dropped by 20 to 25% between January and April 2026 compared to last year.Even though price increases have recently eased, worries remain for the 2026/27 season due to a slowdown in purchases in Europe and North America, especially for nitrogen and phosphates. “Market conditions are still very sensitive to events affecting transit through the Strait of Hormuz,” the report points out.
Food import bill
On another note, the report also presents updated estimates of the global food import bill for 2025, which is now expected to have risen by 7.9% compared to the previous year, reaching a new record of $2,220 billion.
This increase comes despite falling costs for cereals, sugar, and oilseeds, driven by a surge in high-value products – coffee, cocoa, spices, animal products, fish, fruits, and vegetables – mainly imported by high-income countries.
These countries account for more than two-thirds of the spending and see their imports rise by 9.3%, compared to 4.0% for upper-middle-income countries, 7.9% for lower-middle-income countries, and 6.7% for low-income countries.The FAO also points out that, in a context of high geopolitical tensions, a shock on oil can almost double the impact on food costs, amplified by risk premiums, insurance, and logistical constraints.
Funding Appeal of 202 Million Dollars
Additionally, the FAO and the World Food Programme (WFP) have launched their very first joint appeal for anticipatory action, requesting 202 million dollars to protect nearly nine million people from the potential impacts of a strong El Niño event in 22 high-risk priority countries.
The United Nations agencies foresee that El Niño conditions will increase the risk of droughts, floods, and storms in parts of Africa, Asia, the Pacific, Latin America, and the Caribbean.
These forecasts come at a time when millions of people are already facing acute food insecurity due to conflicts, economic instability, population displacement, recurrent climate shocks, and economic disruptions linked to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.The fundraising appeal focuses on 22 countries, including Cameroon, Ethiopia, Kenya, Madagascar, Malawi, Mozambique, Nigeria, Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan, Uganda, and Zimbabwe. In Asia and the Pacific, the UN is targeting Afghanistan, Pakistan, the Philippines, and Timor-Leste. In the Americas and the Caribbean, it’s Colombia, El Salvador, Guatemala, Haiti, Honduras, and Venezuela.
