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The OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2026-2035 predicts agricultural growth will outpace carbon emissions over the next decade.
The average global gross agricultural income per worker is expected to go up by 9% by 2035, thanks to productivity gains and overall stability in farm prices, according to a new report published on June 29, 2026, by the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD).However, these prospects remain vulnerable to market volatility caused by crises and conflicts. The report estimates that if the frequency of shocks observed in recent years continues, there is a 25% chance that agricultural incomes in 2035 will be lower than current levels. Short-term risks are also significant, as the recent rise in energy prices and the resulting reduction in fertilizer use are expected to affect agricultural production in 2027. While high-income countries will likely be able to absorb these shocks, low-income countries face a worsening of their food security.
The OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2026-2035 provides a global reference framework for medium-term prospects in agricultural and fisheries markets at national, regional, and global levels. Under stable conditions, global agricultural and fisheries production is expected to grow by 13% over the next ten years, mainly thanks to productivity gains and production intensification, with growth concentrated in Asia, sub-Saharan Africa, and Latin America.However, these Outlooks also highlight the potential negative impacts of adverse shocks, even if they’re temporary. If the average 33% increase in energy prices seen in the first half of 2026 continued into the second half, global cereal production would drop by 0.9% in 2027 and even more significantly, by 1.7%, in low-income countries. The resulting income losses and rising food prices would also force households in low-income countries to cut back on food consumption and turn to cheaper products.
“Our food systems are under pressure, and our farmers are on the front line against rising energy and fertilizer costs,” said Mathias Cormann, Secretary-General of the OECD. “Their resilience is the guarantee of our food security. Protecting it means better support to handle shocks, sustained investments in productivity, and open, efficient global markets.””To maintain the growth of productivity in agri-food systems, we need to strengthen their resilience. Resilience isn’t about surviving the last shock, but about getting ready for the next one,” said QU Dongyu, Director-General of the FAO. “By investing today in diversified trade corridors, regional reserves of essential agricultural inputs, resilient infrastructure, and a more diverse energy mix within agri-food systems—which reduces dependence on oil—we can turn vulnerability into preparedness and ensure that temporary disruptions don’t turn into food security crises.”In a stable context where productivity gains are expected to account for most of the growth in production, some expansion of cultivated areas and livestock numbers will still be necessary. As a result, direct greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture are expected to rise by 6.5% over the next decade. Livestock is likely to account for about 77% of this increase due to herd growth, while synthetic fertilizers should contribute the remaining 23% by 2035 through an increase in nitrous oxide emissions.
The expected productivity gains are likely to put downward pressure on the real prices of agricultural products. While this could benefit consumers, it might create significant challenges for small farmers, who are more vulnerable to market volatility and often less able to adopt the technologies needed to boost productivity. Governments should, therefore, support productivity growth while improving farmers’ access to markets and offering aid programs tailored to local realities.Consumers in lower-middle-income countries should diversify their diets more, especially by eating more animal products, as their standard of living improves. On the other hand, low-income countries, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, are likely to continue lagging behind in terms of food security and nutrition. At the same time, overconsumption is expected to persist in the richest countries. Southeast Asia is projected to account for 39% of the growth in global consumption by 2035, driven by population growth and rising per capita demand.
Multilateral cooperation and international agricultural trade based on rules remain essential for strengthening global food security, promoting a more diverse diet, and helping stabilize farm incomes.
Key points to remember:
Global cereal production is expected to grow steadily, reaching a record level of 3.22 billion tonnes by 2035. This growth will mainly come from a 0.9% annual improvement in yields, while the area planted with cereals is expected to increase by only 0.1% per year, less than half the rate seen in the previous decade. By 2035, it’s estimated that 40% of cereals will be consumed directly by people, while 34% will go to animal feed. Human consumption will remain the main use for wheat and rice, while corn will mostly be used for animal feed.Global demand for biofuels is expected to grow by 1.4% per year over the next decade, mainly driven by Brazil, India, and Indonesia. Growth is expected to slow in most high-income countries due to weakening policy incentives and faster adoption of electric vehicles. Sub-Saharan Africa will account for an increasing share of global agricultural production over the next decade, contributing around 16% to the increase in global agricultural output in value by 2035, compared to 11% in the previous decade. However, much of the region will remain vulnerable to food insecurity and external shocks. The Asia-Pacific region is expected to account for 58% of the additional global agricultural output by 2035, with India alone contributing 26% to this increase.
This growth will be largely driven by the rapid expansion of the dairy herd and increased milk yields. In high-income countries, meat consumption growth is expected to slow down noticeably, with consumers increasingly turning to poultry instead of beef due to high prices, health concerns, and environmental pressures.
Global fishery and aquaculture production is expected to rise by 11% by 2035, with aquaculture continuing to drive growth and accounting for 56% of total production, up from 53% today. Asia is expected to remain the main driver of global seafood supply and demand, even though expansion in China — the world’s largest aquaculture producer — is expected to moderate.
