UNCTAD / Abrham Grizaw A handling crane lifts a container at a freight terminal, with other containers stacked in the background.
July 23, 2026 Economic Development
Despite geopolitical tensions and concerns about supply chains, global trade grew by about 4% in the first quarter of 2026, the United Nations trade and development agency said Thursday, noting that East Asia was the main driver of this growth.
According to UN Trade and Development, global trade in goods reached around $13.7 trillion in the first half of 2026, up 12.5% compared to the same period in 2025. Trade in services grew by 10.5%.
Together, goods and services added about $2 trillion to global trade, putting it on track to reach a record annual level.
The immediate forecasts from the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) suggest that trade will continue to grow in the second quarter, especially goods trade. The UN agency notes, however, that much of this increase reflects higher prices rather than stronger trade volumes.Impact of Maritime Traffic in the Strait of Hormuz
The report states that global trade continues to face uncertainties related to geopolitical tensions, changes in trade policies, and supply chain disruptions.
“Disruptions in maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, combined with concerns about energy supply, have led to higher costs for energy, transportation, logistics, and production,” the document notes. Prices of traded goods rose by around 3.6% in the first quarter and are said to have increased by about 5% in the second quarter, largely reflecting the rise in energy prices and some raw materials.According to UNCTAD, disruptions affecting logistics, shipping routes, and supply chains, combined with rising transport and energy costs, could weigh on global trade, business confidence, investment, and economic growth, while also increasing inflation pressures and the fragmentation of trade.
UNCTAD/Jan Hoffmann Containers in a port in São Tomé and Príncipe. (archives)
East Asia at the forefront of uneven expansion
East Asia has been the main driver of global trade growth in the first quarter, with China and the Republic of Korea showing the strongest increases in goods trade, according to the report.
Developing economies and South-South trade saw double-digit growth over the past 12 months, when East Asian economies were taken into account.
Among the major economies, the Republic of Korea recorded the highest quarterly export growth at 20%, followed by China at 11%. China’s imports rose by 13%, the highest increase among the major economies.But when East Asia was left out, developing economies overall saw their goods trade shrink, mainly due to lower imports and exports from West Asia and South Asia.
Also, Africa and Europe have seen strong growth in their imports over the past 12 months.AI and Electric Mobility
In the first quarter, it was the trade in critical minerals that saw the fastest growth, up 38%. Semiconductors rose 25%, electronics 18%, batteries 15%, ICT products 14%, and electric cars 11%.
Hybrid vehicles also continued to post good results. On the other hand, trade in solar and wind energy products contracted during the quarter, while fossil fuel trading went up, mainly due to rising prices.At the more general level of the manufacturing industry, trade in electrical machinery grew by 13%, trade in machinery by 8%, and trade in other basic metals by 13%. Trade in chemicals, as well as in iron and steel, declined. The minerals sector grew by 22%, supported by strong demand and higher prices.
According to UNCTAD, demand for products related to artificial intelligence, semiconductors, batteries, critical minerals, and electric vehicles is expected to remain a key driver of trade growth throughout the second half of 2026.
