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Suspense, suspense.
Suspense, suspense… The Round of 32 table for the World Cup will remain uncertain until the end of the group stage on Saturday, because of a rule of unprecedented complexity with 495 possible combinations, a result of expanding the tournament from 32 to 48 teams.Where a World Cup had been decided since 1998 through a sequence of seven matches – three group games, then the round of 16, quarterfinal, semifinal, and final – the knockout stage now has one more round: the round of 32.
When 32 teams played the tournament, things were as simple as the times table for 2: the first and second of each of the eight groups of four would move on to the round of 16.
But things get tricky in this edition where the 48 teams entered need to be cut down to 32 in the round of 16. Besides the top two from each of the 12 groups, the eight best third-placed teams will play in this knockout stage.
Naturally, the identity of these eight teams will remain uncertain until the very end, with the results of the last group stage matches, between Jordan and Argentina in Dallas and between Algeria and Austria in Kansas City. The kickoff for these two games is scheduled for 9:00 PM local time (Sunday at 2:00 AM GMT).
Argentina is guaranteed to finish first in Group J, but the next two spots will be contested between Austria and Algeria. One will automatically qualify as second. The other could qualify as third, depending on its final points compared to the other eleven third-placed teams.Nothing is left to chance
For what comes next, nothing is left to chance but instead follows a complex exercise in calculating possibilities based on three constraints:
- Only the winners of eight groups (A, B, D, E, G, I – the Blues’ group – K, and L) will face one of the eight best third-placed teams. The last four round-of-16 matches will have the group winners face the runners-up of groups C and F, and of groups H and J.
- A group winner cannot face a third-placed team from their own group.
- FIFA opted for a fixed system where a group winner will face a third-placed team from a predetermined list of five groups, already known, not from all eight groups that could eventually be involved.
Based on these constraints, FIFA produced and published before the start of the World Cup a predefined chart showing 495 possible combinations, depending on which of the 12 groups provide a best third-placed team.So, if France were to top Group I, in order of probability, they could face the third-place team from Group F (Netherlands, Japan, Sweden, Tunisia), then from Group D, G, H, and finally C—the mathematically least likely scenario.
In the rules for the 23rd edition of the World Cup, it takes no less than 18 pages of appendix to list these 495 combinations. One of them will decide the matchup for the round of 16…
